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WEATHER ALERT: Heavy rainfall and flooding a threat

photo: NWS

WEDNESDAY MORNING TROPICAL UPDATE:

The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins next Friday, June 1st.

The National Hurricane Center is giving an area of low pressure and unorganized clouds/thunderstorm activity a 60% chance for tropical formation over the next 5 days. This area of low pressure is currently east of Belize, in the Northwest Caribbean Sea. Conditions are unfavorable for development over the next couple of days due to strong wind shear, however, gradual development is possible later this week as this system moves north into the Gulf of Mexico.

Typically, tropical threats this time of year are big rain producers more than anything else. Name or no name, focus should be on the potential for heavy rain & flooding along the Gulf coast.

There is still great uncertainty in the future of this low. The European Model brings this low toward Mississippi where the GFS brings the low across the Florida Peninsula. As of Wednesday morning, here are the main points:

WHEN:

- Friday through the weekend

WHAT WE KNOW:

- Area of low pressure in the Caribbean will head into the Gulf of Mexico

- Gradual development into a tropical depression possible

- High surf is likely along the Gulf coast

- Moderate to High Rip Currents will likely be present through the holiday weekend

- Enhanced rainfall across Cuba and Florida this week through the weekend

POSSIBLE IMPACTS: * IMPACTS DEPENDS ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES

- Potential Flash Flood Risk

- Minor coastal flooding possible

-Isolated severe storms

-Waterspouts



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