High chance for tropical development in Gulf of Mexico

High chance for area in Caribbean to develop as it moves into Gulf of Mexico. Medium chance for tropical wave in the Atlantic to develop.

All eyes are on the tropics this weekend thanks to two areas of interest - Invest 92L & Invest 93L.

Let's start with Invest 93L, since that one is a little closer to home.

An area of broad low pressure is creating a mess in the northern Caribbean.

As of Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center says this area of low pressure is likely to slowly develop into a tropical cyclone (or subtropical) as it moves into the southern or central Gulf early this week.

Over the next 48 hours, the NHC says there is a high chance for development (80%) in the next day or two and a high chance for development (90%) through the next five days.

The next named storm would be Bret, followed by Cindy.

At this point, rapid development is not expected.

Should Invest 93L develop into a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, or weak tropical storm looks to be the best bet at this time.

There is a lot of uncertainty with specific tracks or impacts.

Models are showing various tracks from the Texas coast to the Big Bend in Florida.

Regardless of the path, heavy rain can be expected wherever this system tracks.

In fact, given that the circulation is large, rainfall impact may be worse away from the center.

All in all, heavy rain can be expected somewhere along the Gulf Coast.

There is an increase in confidence in heavy rainfall for the Florida Panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly even Thursday.

The Hurricane Hunters cancelled their trip to investigate 93L because the low pressure system lacked a well-defined center of circulation.

Now on to Invest 92L, which is now being called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two". In fact, this may develop into Bret before Invest 93L.

The NHC says this disturbance has a high chance (90%) for formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance (90%) for formation over the next five days.

We will continue to keep a close eye on these disturbances over the next 24-48 hours.

Stay tuned for updates. The tropics are very tricky and this forecast is likely to change quickly, so stay up-to-date with the First Warning Channel 3 Weather Team!

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