Tropics are already busy
National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring two areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin. Disturbance One is a broad area of low pressure that extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to across portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It has an 80 percent chance for formation over the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance over five days. Right now, Disturbance One is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The broad area of low pressure does not have a well-defined center of circulation at this writing, but gradual development is expected Monday into Tuesday. Disturbance One is forecast to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands are expected to receive heavy rain over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is set to fly into Disturbance One later this afternoon, if forecasters deem it necessary. Everyone along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, should monitor this system carefully. Right now, sea heights in and around the low pressure center range from nine to fourteen feet.
We're also watching a second area; Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. This low is located ESE of Trinidad. New Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Venezuela. It's moving toward the west near 25 miles per hour. It's expected to continuing moving forward quickly toward the west-northwest over the next two days. Maximum winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. It's expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours, and become a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela Monday night into Tuesday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has a 90 percent of forming into a tropical system over the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent over the next five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Monday afternoon.